The Simple Math Of The Azkals!

How big is our chance of advancing to the next round?

That seems to be the question of the day posed to the Azkals. After 2 successive draws to Myanmar and Palestine, the Azkals sit at third place in our group, in danger of missing a seat at the next round of the AFC Challenge Cup.

Many people seem to be jumping to erroneous conclusions, swinging like a pendulum from overflowing confidence to doomsday naysayer. So, here's the simple mathematical breakdown of our Azkals' chances at advancing.


Here are the scenarios we need to look at.


Azkals win. If they do, the other match has no bearing to us. Winning over Bangladesh means we get 5 points. Bangladesh gets left behind with 3. Palestine winning gives them 7points (and they get 1st place).  Myanmar winning nets them 4 (tied with Palestine, and they now go to goal differential).  Either way, we go on.



Azkals lose, Palestine wins. Azkals get stuck with 2points and are eliminated with Myanmar. Bangaldesh (surprise, surprise) gets 6points and moves on. Palestine gets 7 points and moves on as well.


Azkals lose, Myanmar wins. Azkals still at 2pts, still eliminated. Bangladesh moves on with 6 pts while Myanmar and Palestine slug it out on goal difference with 4pts.


Azkals draw, Palestine wins. Azkals get 3 points but still eliminated. Palestine moves on with 7 pts. Bangladesh moves on with 4 pts. Myanmar stuck at the bottom with 1pt.

Azkals draw, Myanmar wins. Azkals get 3 points. Bangladesh, Palestine and Myanmar are all tied at 4pts and go to goal differential. No bearing on us because we would still be eliminated.

Azkals draw, Palestine and Myanmar draw. Azkals with 3 pts. Bangladesh with 4 pts. Palestine with 5 pts. Myanmar with 2pts. Azkals are, once again, eliminated.

So the only scenario (amongst 6) where would actually go on to the next round is if we won our match against Bangladesh. 1 out of 6 is basically 17%. Which means we better be ready to slug it out. The Azkals now have the opportunity to show the Asian community what Azkals are made up of.

As Kevin Costner said in Tin Cup "We define the moment or the moment defines us."

My fearless prediction: Azkals win, 1-0, James Younghusband for the win.