Gilas Vs France: Predictions

Today is G-Day (or Game Day), when we embark on another (and last) journey to snare the last ticket to Rio.

But it’s going to be no walk in the park, as we’re going up against one of the best in the world, FIBA’s 5^th-ranked team France. Les Bleus (as they are called) boast of several NBA players, including superstar Tony Parker and veteran Boris Diaw. The French are, in fact, the prohibitive favorites to win this Olympic Qualifying Tournament leg.

That being said, here are three things I expect we’ll see tonight:

Bombs Away. Gilas has relied on their three point marksmanship heavily in the last 2 years and tonight won’t be any different. Andray Blatche, Jayson Castro, Terence Romeo, Ranidel de Ocampo and Jeff Chan need to be on point, for Gilas to have a chance of sticking around. So expect them (plus Bobby Ray Parks and Troy Rosario) to be spotting up from outside. Whether they make those threes or not is a different matter.

A Changing of the Guards For Iranian Basketball

Late breaking news: Iran finalizes its Olympic Qualifying Tournament team. And guess what? Their lineup is missing some big names that are practically synonymous to Iranian basketball.

Names like Hamed Afagh, Mehdi Kamrani, and even Samad Nikkhah Bahrami, a transcendent do-it-all forward who averaged 17.0pts and 6 rebounds for the Zheijiang Golden Bulls of the Chinese Basketball League.

Gilas Pilipinas Box Score and Video link here.

Video courtesy of Gilas 4.0

Enjoy.

Gilas Gets Back at China 72-69: Thoughts on the Win

After getting shellacked for two straight games (against Turkey and Italy), Gilas Pilipinas finally accomplished two things: prune their pool to a final 12 lineup for the Olympic Qualifying tournament and get a win.

Gilas Pilipinas faced a Chinese team lacking their three biggest guns in Yi Jianlian, teen sensation and recent NBA draftee Zhou Qi and Guo Ailun. Still, a win is a win and Gilas can take heart in the fact that China can never take them for granted ever again.

That being said, here are four thoughts from that game:

Gilas can win, even with their main guns having bad games.

Andray Blatche had a double-double (14points, 12 rebounds) but he was a horrible, horrible 4-19 from the field (4-13 from 2pt land, 0-6 from beyond the arc). Jayson Castro was able to get inside the paint numerous times but still seemed to have a mental block against the Chinese big men, as his shots just couldn’t find the bottom of the net (2-7 from the field). Still, the silver lining of their bad games is that other Gilas players stepped up to contribute and help get the win. But make no mistake; Gilas Pilipinas can’t afford to have either Blatche nor play as bad as this against teams like France or New Zealand.

WHO MAKES MY GILAS FAB 14?

In a couple of hours, Coach Tab Baldwin will unveil the 14 hardy Filipino basketball players who will be one step closer to making the final Gilas lineup for the Olympic Qualifying tournament.

Here’s my fearless forecast on who makes the cut, broken down into categories:

THE SHOO-INS

Andray Blatche – Of course he’s in. Of all the players, he’s the one truly indispensable one, thus he’s also the one pick that will never be in question.

Jayson Castro – Yes, “the Blur” and the current best PG in Asia has certainly earned the right to be a shoo-in. While there are other capable PGs in the roster, Castro is at his playing peak and it is evident in how he has been able to dominate Asian basketball in the last 4 years. Simply said, he’s heads and shoulders above his competition in this one. 

Junemar Fajardo – Believe it or not, Fajardo is a shoo-in not by virtue of performance but by virtue or philosophy. We know that Coach Tab has placed immense value in the presence and skill set of Fajardo. If only for the role he fulfills in Baldwin’s offensive and defensive schemes, he gets a slot virtually by default (especially with Greg Slaughter out with injuries, again).

THE MUST-HAVES

Jeff Chan – The international game had always been a game for shooters. Our need for more shooters was painfully evident in Hunan so Jeff Chan becomes our designated shooter. Had Marcio Lassiter not been ill lately, he could have made a case for this spot or even made the cut as another shooter on board (God knows we need all we can get). But for now, the Negros Sniper is our best bet.

The Jordan Clarkson Situation: Good Or Bad?

By now, the news has already sunk in. Jordan Clarkson WILL NOT be suiting up for Gilas Pilipinas come the Manila Olympic Qualifiers.

And while the knee jerk reaction by the public was one of dismay, his absence may actually be a blessing in disguise for the future of Gilas Pilipinas basketball.

Here are four reasons why Jordan Clarkson’s absence may actually prove to be a good thing:

THERE’S STILL A CHANCE HE CAN PLAY AS A LOCAL.

With Clarkson’s citizenship status still unclear, the FIBA committee was taking no chances that they’d see a repeat of the 2011 FIBA Asia Championships, when five members of the Qatari national team were disqualified for having been granted citizenships just to play.

The NBA's Secret Contender

They currently sit as the third seed in the NBA’s much-improved Eastern Conference, with a 34-25 record (which would put them at the West’s 5^th spot).

They also boast of quality wins over top tier teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Houston Rockets, the Chicago Bulls, the LA Clippers, the Miami Heat, the Indiana Pacers, and the Atlanta Hawks.

So why isn’t anyone talking about the Boston Celtics?

Here are the four reasons why people aren’t talking about the Celtics but also, why they should be talking about the Celtics

TEAM “NO-SUPERSTARS”

Take a quick look at the Boston Celtics lineup and tell me if you see a bonafide super star. Or even a clear cut top 20 player. The closest you’d get is All-Star Isaiah Thomas (21.6 ppg, 6.8 apg, 2.9 rpg), who started out the season ranked #65 by ESPN. Even then, sexier names like Derrick Rose, Kyrie Irving, and Jeff Teague (all non-all stars this year) are more likely to be considered “better” players than Thomas.

How Bad Was The Gilas OQT Draw?

Bad enough.

Our group in the Manila Olympic Qualifying Tournament include what is probably the strongest team in the entire qualifiers (France) and in the other group, arguably the second or third strongest team (Canada). New Zealand, Senegal, and Turkey complete our group and of the three, it’s only Senegal that I’d say we’d be the favored to win.

The short tournament format makes every game a must-win: lose one and you’ve got one foot out the door. So starting the tournament off by going up against the prohibitive favorites, France, certainly puts us in a bad situation almost immediately. If the likes of Tony Parker, Nicolas Batum, Rudy Gobert, Joakim Noah, Boris Diaw, Evan Fournier, Ian Mahinmi and Nando de Colo show the deadly form they showed at the 2014 FIBA World Cup, they should be heads and shoulders above everyone else.

The Best Ever: Carlos “The Big Difference” Loyzaga

Today, the best-ever Filipino basketball player passed on to the great beyond.

He was known for many things, including being “The Big Difference”, a 6’3” center whose tremendous basketball IQ, gargantuan skill set and fierce competitiveness set him apart from other Filipino basketball luminaries of his time.

He was also known for being a champion many times over, including the MICAA juniors crown, three NCAA championships, several MICAA seniors crowns, a host of National Open crowns, and multiple FIBA Asia Championships and Asian Games titles.

POT LUCK: Getting Lucky In The Olympic Qualifying Draw

By this time, everyone knows who the 18 countries vying for three Olympic slots are. (in case you don't know, they are France, Serbia, Italy, Canada, Czech Republic, Greece, Angola, Iran, New Zealand, Puerto Rico, Croatia,  Tunisia, Turkey, Japan, Latvia, Mexico, Senegal and the Philippines)

But this time, everyone would also know that we will be hosting one of the Olympic Qualifying Tournaments, a distinct honor and a tremendous advantage accorded to our basketball team.

With the draw looming in a few hours, let’s take a quick look at which teams would give us the better chance of winning the Manila leg.

Caveat: the Gilas lineup I’m using for this comparison includes not just a fit Andray Blatche, but also a fully healed Junemar Fajardo plus Jordan Clarkson.

But first, a look at the draw pots:

And now, analyzing the probable match ups:

POT 1 – Serbia is a host so we’ll never face them. It comes down to France vs Greece and while I would dearly love to see how Jayson Castro matches up against  Tony Parker, how Terence Romeo will react to seeing Rudy Gobert in his path, how Ranidel de Ocampo will fare against Nicolas Batum, playing Greece is a much better option for us. Greece is a good team but they haven’t been as successful in the world stage as they were a decade ago. I’d say we lose big against the French but win by about 5-8 points versus Greece.

GILAS-ables: Vic Manuel

“GILAS-ables” is a series of articles that will discuss different players who could make a case for joining the Gilas pool. This series will include Filipinos and Fil-foreign players plying their trade not just in the PBA but also in other leagues, including the US NCAA, the UAAP, and the PBA D-League.

In the fourth article in this series, we’ll talk about a player who’s represented the Philippines in international 3x3 competitions already but has not generated even a single peep with regards to his possible inclusion in the Gilas pool.

PLAYER INFO

Name: Manuel, Vic

Team: Alaska Aces

Height: 6’ 4”

Weight: 201 lbs

College: PSBA

PBA STATS

Current Season:

16.4 points per game, 8 rebounds per game, 1.2 assists per game, 1.4 steals per game

Career:

8.8 points per game, 4.7 rebounds per game, 1 assist per game, .5 steals per game

WHY HE SHOULD BE IN THE GILAS POOL

Much like Sean Anthony, a Gilas-able discussed earlier, Vic Manuel was a so-so player until this year, when something suddenly clicked inside the head of the 4-year veteran.