Friday, June 26, 2015

NBA DRAFT: Where Potential Trumps Production

If you were the general manager of an NBA team and you had to choose, would you go for:


A) An unproven 19 year old who's 7'2" but is very raw skills-wise, has not had any international playing experience and barely makes a dent in the local basketball scene














Or

B) A 22 year old swingman who was recruited by US NCAA Division I colleges, won back-to-back collegiate MVP's and represented his country countless times in the international arena, even winning championships in regional tilts?















The unproven 19 year old, obviously. And that is why Satnam Singh Bhamara, a benchwarmer for the Indian national basketball team, was drafted over Bobby Ray Parks, one of the Philippines' best amateur players to date.

Of course it's easy to accuse me of homerism, of taking up the cudgels for Parks because he's Filipino while Bharama is Indian. The reason it's easy is probably because it's true. But it's not completely true. Because the complete truth is that NBA teams rewards potential, not production.

That's the reason why Darko Milicic, an 18year old prospect from Serbia, was picked over NCAA champion Carmelo Anthony, or proven collegiate stars like Chris Bosh and Dwayne Wade. That's why three of the first four picks of the 2001 draft (Kwame Brown, Tyson Chandler, Eddy Curry) were all unproven 18 year olds.  (Incidentally, the third pick in that year's draft was the 20 year old Pau Gasol. Several All Star players came after the three 18 year olds, including Joe Johnson (#10), Zach Randolph (#19), Tony Parker (#28) and Gilbert Arenas (#31).) And that is why a Bulls team a piece or two away from the championship would roll the dice with Tyrus Thomas instead of LaMarcus Aldridge. Because of the possibility that they might be really, really good somewhere down the line. And no one wants to be the one to miss someone really, really good.

But what NBA teams don't realize is that this practice of rewarding potential instead of production is pushing the skill level of the league lower and lower. Now, instead of watching mature 20year olds with polished games (Larry Bird, anyone?) come in and be ready to deliver for an NBA team, most of the time, we see potential-laden youngsters muddle through the pro game. Sometimes, we don't even see them at all.

But I'm not saying that teams should never draft young players at all. After all, LeBron James was 18 and Carmelo Anthony, 20, when they were drafted and they turned out really well. But, at that age, James and Anthony had already proven that they were ready for the NBA. Poor Darko never did and never was.

Let's hope Satnam Singh Bharama doesn't turn out to be the Indian Darko (no one should ever turn out to be another Darko) but let's do hope Bobby Ray Parks becomes the Filipino Dwayne Wade.

No comments: