Gilas
Pilipinas came into the FIBA Asia Championships with the lofty goal of
finishing #1 in their bracket, so that they can avoid host China in the
crossover semifinal round. It was a lofty goal because they needed to win over
Iran, a team that has consistently dominated Gilas in the last decade or so.
And
when they lost their opening day match to Palestine, many took it to be an
indication of Gilas’ quality, that they didn’t have the talent, the will or the
smarts to get to where they needed go be.
One
week later, the story has become completely different; as Gilas not only
managed to win the games they were expected to win (against Japan and India)
but also that crucial game versus Iran. Palestine, after a blazing started,
faltered and crashed out of the knockout rounds.
As
the top seed in Group E, Gilas is slated to go up against the fourth seed in
Group F, Lebanon. While it is normal to expect a top seed to make quick work of
a fourth seed, this FIBA Asia Championships have been anything but normal.
Lebanon’s
FIBA Asia tourney has been one of ups and downs. Winning over Chinese Taipei
was a surprise, but they couldn’t translate that to wins over Qatar or South
Korea. But this squad has shown speed, shooting and tenacity when it was needed
and they could pose a big problem to Gilas. So for those expecting an easy win,
here are some match ups to watch out for (hopefully, temper your expectations).
MATCH UPS TO WATCH OUT FOR
JJ
Youngblood vs Gabe Norwood/Calvin Abueva – Youngblood is one of Lebanon’s best
scoring options, scoring an average of 19ppg, adding 4 rebounds and 3 assists.
At 6’4”, he’s a shooting guard with good size, which leads me to believe that
while Hontiveros will start on him, the primary defensive player on him will be
either Norwood or Abueva. Both are tenacious defenders who can chase Youngblood
around the floor while being athletic enough to force Youngblood to shoot over
them. On the other side of the fence, Norwood won’t be a very big factor on
offense but Abueva can certainly make Youngblood sweat on defense.
Mohamad
Ali Haidar vs Andray Blatche – Haidar is Lebanon’s go-to big man, a skilled
offensive player who basically has to carry the offense of the entire Lebanese
frontline. He’s averaging 14.6 ppg as well as 6.7 rebounds. Blatche, of course,
is one of Gilas’ main guns, averaging 16.2 points as well as 8 rebounds per
game. It’s going to be an interesting match up, with both able to hit from the
three point line and drive to the rim for easy twos.
Amir
Saoud vs Jayson Castro - Saoud is Lebanon’s 6-foot guard who has shown
remarkable improvement game upon game. After going 0-2 in Lebanon’s first game,
he’s since gone on to score 10, 14, 14, 10 and finally, 20 points in a crucial
match versus Jordan. Castro is, of
course, Asia’s best point guard and he’s been turning in a performance that is
cementing his reputation as that. He’s tied with Blatche as Gilas’ top scorer
(16.2) and has also contributed 2.3 assists per game. While neither man is a
lockdown defender, they are both competent on defense. They are also both
creative scorers. To break the deadlock, one of them will either have to be
more disruptive on defense or even more unstoppable on offense.
PREDICTION
Gilas
85, Lebanon70.
I
think Castro and Romeo continue on their scoring sprees, Blatche negates Haidar,
and the depth of Gilas’ bench eventually grinds down Lebanon.
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